October 30, 2026

  UPFRONT BRIEFING

Lilly made it three raises in three quarters: Q3 revenue of $24.4B cleared the Street by about $1.8B, and the 2026 range now sits at $91–92B, roughly $10B above where it started the year. BioMarin paid $70M upfront to license a subcutaneous Fabry enzyme from GC Biopharma and Hanmi, and the Labor Department gave PBMs until July 2027 to open their books to employers.

Merck and Bristol Myers both nudged outlooks up, Iovance and Coherus learned how unforgiving small-cohort data can be, and Dren Bio banked $350M to get its CD94 antibody to market. ESGCT wraps in Hamburg today, so the gene-therapy posters are your weekend reading.

TAPE ACTION

  • Healthcare (XLV) +2.4% was the best S&P sector, carried by large-cap pharma reporting before the open: Lilly +6.6% on its Q3 beat and third guidance raise, Merck +3.8% on a raised profit outlook. Biotech trailed the big caps (NBI +0.9%, XBI +0.2%, BBC (0.1%)), with Iovance and Coherus each down roughly 30% on early data.

  • Alphabet (12.6%), its worst day on record after a double miss and negative free cash flow, dragged the Nasdaq 100 (1.4%) and ended the S&P 500's three-day win streak at (0.3%); the Russell 2000 rose 1.0%. Q3 GDP ran at 3.4% annualized vs 3.1% expected, jobless claims fell to 194K, September PCE printed 3.6% y/y, the 10-year slipped 7bp to 4.98%, and the ECB held.

THE BIG 3

1️⃣ — Tirzepatide volume swamps price cuts as Lilly lifts outlook a third time

  • Q3 revenue rose 39% to $24.4B against ~$22.6B consensus, led by Mounjaro at $10.7B (+65%) and Zepbound at $5.4B (+49%). 2026 revenue guidance went to $91–92B from $85–87B, roughly $10B above the range Lilly set at the start of the year, while non-GAAP EPS guidance was trimmed to $35.00–36.00 on acquired IPR&D. LLY closed 6.6% higher.

  • Why it matters: The mix matters more than the beat. Volume grew 53% while realized price fell 15% worldwide and 29% ex-US, so Lilly is trading price for reach and still clearing consensus by about $1.8B. Medicare's GLP-1 Bridge has 500,000 patients on Lilly obesity drugs, 80% of them new to incretins, and ex-US tirzepatide grew 93% to $5.7B on self-pay demand. Novo has to chase that installed base with CagriSema and the Wegovy pill while Foundayo rolls into 40-plus markets. The risk is the one TD Cowen named: a stock re-rated on serial beats needs a new surprise once the upside runs out, and the EPS trim shows deal spending is already absorbing part of the windfall.

  • Source: Endpoints

2️⃣ — BioMarin pays $70M upfront to license a subcutaneous Fabry enzyme

  • BioMarin took global rights outside South Korea to HM15421/GC1134A, a long-acting enzyme replacement therapy built for subcutaneous dosing, from GC Biopharma and Hanmi for $70M upfront, up to $405M in development and commercial milestones, plus royalties. The partners finish the ongoing global Phase 1/2 trial before BioMarin takes over development.

  • Why it matters: This is the other half of the $4.8B Amicus buy. Galafold, with $521.7M of 2025 sales, only works in amenable GLA variants, and William Blair puts the ineligible group at 60-70% of Fabry patients, the population Sanofi, Chiesi and Takeda serve with every-other-week infusions. A subcutaneous enzyme lets BioMarin compete for that majority on convenience rather than as a me-too. At $70M upfront for a Phase 1/2 asset with no clinical efficacy disclosed, the downside is capped; the bet is on a dosing interval the partners have not yet given. The real threat to the whole ERT model is PTC's ST-920 gene therapy, whose rolling BLA is due to complete this quarter.

3️⃣ — Labor Department gives PBMs a July 2027 disclosure deadline

  • The Labor Department finalized its PBM fee-disclosure rule. From 1 July 2027, PBMs serving large self-insured group health plans must disclose rebates, spread pricing and other drugmaker and supply-chain compensation at contract signing or renewal and every six months, and employers get annual audit rights. Officials estimate it covers 70-plus PBMs and 130,000 employers.

  • Why it matters: Express Scripts, Caremark and Optum Rx handle about 80% of US prescriptions, and their margins lean on rebate and spread economics employers could not see. Possible contract invalidation for non-compliance gives the rule teeth the earlier CAA reporting lacked. DOL pegs savings at $22B over a decade, small against the rebate pool, so the near-term hit lands on PBM negotiating leverage rather than earnings. Drugmakers lose some of the cover for high-list, high-rebate pricing, which helps brands already selling at lower net or direct to employers. PCMA calls the rule redundant and disputes DOL's authority, so expect a court fight before July 2027.

  • Source: STAT

EVERYTHING ELSE THAT BROKE

  • AstraZeneca's Q3 revenue rose 7% to $16.2B (vs ~$16.0B expected) and core EPS 19% at CER to $2.79 (vs $2.59), with oncology up 17% to $7.8B offsetting a 25% Farxiga slide to $1.6B on generics; 2026 guidance was confirmed and two early-phase prostate cancer programs were cut. — Fierce Biotech

  • Merck's Q3 sales rose 5% to $18.1B as Keytruda hit $8.6B (Keytruda Qlex $830M) and Winrevair nearly doubled to $694M; non-GAAP EPS guidance moved up to $2.77–2.82 net of Cidara and Terns charges, and management called 2027 another investment year. — Fierce Pharma

  • Bristol Myers beat Q3 consensus (revenue +7% to $13.1B vs $12.75B), edged 2026 revenue guidance to $49.75–50.25B, cut EPS guidance on a $1.65B acquired-IPR&D charge, and dropped Prothena-licensed PRX019 ($80M upfront in 2024) after Phase 1. — BioSpace

  • Alnylam's Q3 net product revenue rose 52% to $1.29B on Amvuttra at $1.13B (+65%); 2026 guidance of $4.7–5.1B was reiterated. — PR

  • Iovance and Coherus each fell roughly 30% on early data: lifileucel posted a 24.6% ORR (17/69) in previously treated non-squamous NSCLC, and tagmokitug plus toripalimab managed 16.7% (1/6) in second-line ESCC despite 75% (6/8) in first line. — Endpoints

  • Mevidalen, Lilly's D1 receptor modulator, was dropped in Alzheimer's after a Phase 2 that fell short of Lilly's internal bar. — Fierce Biotech

  • STAT flagged a previously undisclosed infection-related pause rule for Vertex's IgAN drug povetacicept, raising label questions ahead of its 30 Nov FDA decision. — STAT

  • Ono's endocannabinoid modulator ONO-1110 missed in all five Phase 2 trials; depression and social anxiety are dropped, while pain work in PHN, fibromyalgia and Hunner-type IC continues. — BioSpace

  • LENZ cut 75% of staff and changed CEOs alongside a disappointing Q3 update. — Fierce Pharma

  • Molecular Partners will lay off up to 44% of staff to focus its shrinking cash on a radiotherapy pipeline led by an early-phase small cell lung cancer candidate. — Fierce Biotech

  • Insmed posted $524.4M in Q3 revenue and raised 2026 guidance for Brinsupri and Arikayce. — PR

  • Flagship merged Cellarity, Etiome and Empress Therapeutics into AI drug-discovery company Etcelera, led by ex-Adaptimmune CEO Adrian Rawcliffe. — Endpoints

  • The UK pulled in £500M of biopharma investment pledges, led by Vertex, alongside its Autumn budget. — Endpoints

DEAL FLOW

Track the Deals Shaping Biotech

Track M&A, licensing agreements, IPOs and venture financings. Explore deal values, key terms and transaction details in our regularly updated BioBucks trackers.

M&A / BD&L

  • BioMarin / GC Biopharma + Hanmi: global ex-Korea licence to HM15421/GC1134A, a subcutaneous long-acting Fabry ERT in Phase 1/2; $70M upfront, up to $405M in milestones, plus royalties. — Fierce Biotech

VC / PRIVATE FINANCINGS

  • Dren Bio raised an oversubscribed $350M (series undisclosed), co-led by Juvia Group and Lightspeed, for dibotatug (DR-01), a CD94-targeting depleting antibody in a registrational Phase 1/2 for LGLL and cytotoxic T-cell lymphoma; primary readout due in December, market target end-2027. — Endpoints

IPO / FOLLOW-ON

  • Bambusa (BBTX) priced an upsized IPO at the $16 midpoint, 10.56M shares for ~$168.9M gross (+1.58M-share option); BBT001 (IL-4Rα/IL-31) and BBT002 (IL-4Rα/IL-5) bispecifics are in the clinic; BofA, Evercore, UBS and Cantor; trades today, closes 2 Nov. — Fierce Biotech

  • Aspen Neuroscience (ASPE) priced at the $15 bottom of its range, selling 9.375M shares for ~$140.6M gross (+1.41M-share option), slightly fewer than planned; lead asset sasineprocel is an autologous iPSC-based cell therapy for Parkinson's; Leerink, Piper Sandler, Stifel, UBS and Oppenheimer; trades today. — PR

ACADEMIC CORNER

  • A small-molecule TREM2 agonist for Alzheimer's disease showed CNS penetration, target engagement and tolerability in preclinical work and phase 1. — Nature Medicine

  • In MASLD, multimarker non-invasive panels outperformed single markers in the prospective multicentre LITMUS diagnostic study. — Lancet

Know someone who'd like this?

Forward it along. It takes ten seconds and means a lot to us.

Three raises in three quarters, and Lilly still says it guided low. Have a great weekend.

— The BioBucks Team