Upfront Briefing
Retatrutide won both its trials and still managed to disappoint. Two Phase 3s, primary endpoints cleared, weight loss five to six points under what the last two studies delivered — and 44 cardiovascular events versus 52 on placebo, which is a number Lilly would rather not have printed next to Wegovy's outcomes label. Better day elsewhere: J&J dropped an 0.11 hazard ratio in second-line myeloma, and Scribe priced $128.7M to open the gene-editing IPO window for the first time since 2024, with six more biotechs queued behind it.
Tape Action
| Instrument |
Last close |
1D % |
YTD % |
| S&P 500 |
7,408.3 |
(1.2%) |
8.0% |
| Nasdaq 100 |
28,454.8 |
(1.9%) |
12.9% |
| Russell 2000 |
2,940.2 |
(0.7%) |
17.2% |
| Healthcare (XLV) |
161.4 |
1.3% |
3.8% |
| Biotech (XBI) |
152.2 |
0.1% |
25.3% |
| Nasdaq Biotech (NBI) |
6,526.3 |
0.9% |
14.4% |
| Clinical Trials (BBC) |
50.3 |
(0.6%) |
33.7% |
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- Healthcare was the day's defensive trade, XLV +1.3% and NBI +0.9% against a Nasdaq 100 down 1.9%, with Lilly's TRIUMPH-2 and -3 topline and J&J's MonumenTAL-6 readout both landing pre-open and large-cap pharma absorbing rotation out of mega-cap tech.
- The broad tape broke on AI capex and crude: Alphabet doubled its 2026 capex guide to $205B and fell about 7%, Tesla dropped roughly 14% on margin compression, Brent cleared $100 on expanded Red Sea tanker attacks, and the 10-year hit 4.67% — a 52-week high — pushing VIX up 12% to 18.70 on 23 July.
- Market data: U.S. cash close Thursday, 23 July 2026.
The Big 3
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1
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Retatrutide wins both Phase 3s and still leaves the CV question open
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- Lilly's GIP/GLP-1/glucagon triple agonist hit primary endpoints in TRIUMPH-2 (n=1,152, type 2 diabetes with obesity or overweight) and TRIUMPH-3 (n=1,949, severe obesity with established cardiovascular disease), delivering 20.8% and 22.6% weight loss at 80 weeks on 12 mg against 3.2% on placebo.
- Why it matters: Both trials cleared, but five to six points below the 28.3% and 28.7% TRIUMPH-1 and TRIUMPH-4 posted, and the diabetic population in TRIUMPH-2 only explains part of that. The harder number is MACE: 44 events across the retatrutide arms against 52 on placebo, which is not a cardiovascular outcomes win, and semaglutide's SELECT label is the comparison every payer will reach for. Risk factors moved — triglycerides down 37%, hsCRP down 51.2% — while tolerability didn't, with 13.5% discontinuing on 12 mg in TRIUMPH-3 versus 11.3% in TRIUMPH-1. Filing is guided to Q1 2027. Sell-side consensus peak sales sit near $6.6B, pricing retatrutide as a complement to Zepbound rather than a successor.
- Source: Fierce Biotech
- More: Lilly
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2
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J&J's dual bispecific prints an 0.11 hazard ratio in second-line myeloma
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- Tecvayli plus Talvey cut the risk of progression or death by 89% (HR 0.11) and the risk of death by 62% (HR 0.38) versus investigator's choice in the Phase 3 MonumenTAL-6 study, in patients with one to four prior lines including an anti-CD38 antibody and lenalidomide.
- Why it matters: An 0.11 is the lowest hazard ratio any Phase 3 bispecific study has posted in this setting, and it comes from hitting BCMA and GPRC5D simultaneously — the first randomised dual-antigen dataset anyone has produced. That aims squarely at CAR-T in second line, including J&J's own Carvykti with Legend, and resets the bar for Regeneron's linvoseltamab and Pfizer's Elrexfio as single agents. Fifth positive Phase 3 in J&J's earlier-line myeloma push. Open questions: tolerability on a doubled T-cell-engager backbone, where infection and GPRC5D-driven oral and skin toxicity are the known constraints, and whether payers fund two branded engagers concurrently.
- Source: Scrip
- More: J&J; BioSpace
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| 3 | Scribe prices upsized $128.7M IPO, first gene-editing listing since 2024 |
- Scribe Therapeutics sold 8,580,000 shares at $15.00 for $128.7M gross, above the $13–15 range set Monday, with a concurrent 500,000-share private placement to Sanofi; SCTX opens on Nasdaq today.
- Why it matters: First gene-editing pricing since Metagenomi's ~$94M in 2024, and the fourteenth biotech IPO of 2026. But it clears at less than half the ~$300M median raise this year's class has been getting, and the lead PCSK9 asset doesn't read out until 1H27 — this is a pre-data listing in a year that has rewarded mid-and-late-stage stories. Sanofi adding $7.5M and Lilly signalling interest gives the book strategic ballast the modality hasn't had. Six more biotechs telegraphed July listings; SCTX's first fortnight sets the clearing price for that queue and for every private editor still marking to 2021.
- Source: Endpoints
- More: BioPharma Dive; Fierce Biotech
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Everything Else that broke
- FDA's Pharmacy Compounding Advisory Committee voted 8–6 with one abstention to recommend adding BPC-157 and KPV to the 503A bulks list, then backed TB-500 and MOTS-c, overriding agency scientists; all eight Kennedy-appointed members voted yes and the listing still requires rulemaking. — STAT
- Sanofi discontinued amlitelimab in moderate-to-severe atopic dermatitis and dropped global filing plans six months after guiding to H2 2026 submissions, concluding the OX40L antibody would not meaningfully improve on standard of care; FY26 guidance unchanged. — PR
- Ipsen's Bylvay missed the primary endpoint of native liver survival in the 254-patient Phase III BOLD trial in biliary atresia post-Kasai, with safety consistent with approved indications. — PR
- Roche scrapped its T-cell engager in lupus but told Fierce it retains a strategy for autoimmune cell therapy. — Fierce Biotech
- Dyne closed its upsized offering of 21,045,000 shares at $20.50 for about $431.4M gross, including full exercise of the underwriters' option. — PR
- Scancell won the reverse merger bid for Neuphoria, taking a Nasdaq listing and resolving Neuphoria's shareholder position after it ended its social anxiety program last year. — Fierce Biotech
- Clinuvel is cutting up to 20% of staff as it relocates headquarters from Australia to the US. — Fierce Biotech
- FDA will end its CMC Development and Readiness Pilot in April 2027 after only 21 of an expected 27 drugmakers enrolled across CDER and CBER. — Endpoints
- BioCentury said Arrowhead's Redemplo may compete on dosing and liver profile more than efficacy versus Ionis' Tryngolza. — BioCentury
Deal Flow
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BioBucks 2026 Deal Trackers • Updated weekly ⬇️
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M&A / BD&L
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VYNE updated dividend, reverse split, and closing timing for its proposed merger with Yarrow Bioscience. — PR
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Scancell secured a Nasdaq listing via reverse merger with Neuphoria (see Everything Else). — Fierce Biotech
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Dassault Systèmes signed a definitive agreement to acquire ArisGlobal, adding a life-sciences compliance platform used by 200+ customers, including half of the top 50 global biopharma companies. — ArisGlobal
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Paradigm Oral Health reiterated a surgeon-led buyback backed by a Warburg Pincus-led investor group. — PR
VC / Private Financings
- No notable private financings in the last 24 hours.
IPOs / Follow-Ons
- Scribe priced an upsized $128.7M IPO at $15.00, the first gene-editing listing in more than two years (see The Big 3). — Endpoints
- Dyne closed a $431.4M upsized public stock offering at $20.50 per share. — PR
- China Pharma closed a $5.0M registered direct offering of 2,500,000 shares. — PR
Academic Corner - Nature Medicine published Incyte's twin STOP-HS1/STOP-HS2 phase 3 trials (n=608/619), where oral JAK1 inhibitor povorcitinib hit HiSCR50 at week 12 in 40–42% of patients versus 29–30% on placebo, with acne the most common adverse event. — Nature Medicine
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